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Flash Lite Penetration Forecast for 2008/2009


I’m really happy to bring you a new snapshot of the recent Strategy Analytics Flash Lite Forecast.  Strategy Analytics have worked extremely hard to provide this data and this time I think its more accurate and detailed than ever.

You can see in the above image that they are forecasting over 922 million devices to have shipped with Flash by the end of the year.  In 2009 we will cross the 1 Billion device mark and should ship up to 1.5 Billion by the end of the year.  What this shows is that in fact there will be 1 Billion devices in the install base toward the end of next year!  Incredible..

This time we have been able to work with Strategy Analytics to project the penetration of Flash Lite 3 across the install base.  In the above image you can see the decline of Flash Lite 1.1 devices and Flash Lite 2.x and 3.x increasing.  This is true for all markets including Japan where Flash Lite 1.1 is the dominant version.  We will transistion from 25 million Flash Lite 3.0 devices to over 58 million in a single year.. only in Japan :-)

Strategy Analytics have been kind enough to provide the community with a snapshot of this data.  You can download these PDFs from my sidebar and use them with your customers or in presentations.  As a courtesy you should quote Strategy Analytics whenever you use this data.

At MAX in San Francisco this year I’ll be talking about how you can begin to create and distribute your applications to some of these devices.  If you’re an old hand or completely new to mobile development then be sure to attend these events.  We’ll have representatives from every corner of the ecosystem attending to hear your ideas around engaging mobile applications.

Mobile Summit
(Sunday 16 November at the Marriott from 1-6pm PST)
Join Adobe and our partners — Nokia, Qualcomm, Verizon, Sony Ericsson, GetJar, Thumbplay, and Zed — to learn about new opportunities for mobile developers this year. Get a sneak peak at what you will see and hear at MAX before anyone else does! Hear from Adobe partners and key industry players as they present the newest mobile solutions, technologies, and distribution opportunities for mobile developers.  To learn more and RSVP for this event go to: http://www.eventsadobe.com/mobilesummitmax08/invite.html.

Mobile Fast Pitch Networking Party
(Wednesday 19 November at the Thirsty Bear from 6:15-9:30pm PST)
Adobe is hosting a special Mobile Networking Party to allow developers to showcase their mobile applications using our Adobe Flash mobile technologies. If you already have a web-based application and are thinking of going mobile, you can also present your idea and get feedback from our industry leaders. Join us to support fellow developers or to present your ideas.  For more RSVP and presentation information for this event go to: http://www.eventsadobe.com

  1. #1 by Scott Janousek - November 8th, 2008 at 17:11

    Congrats.

  2. #2 by Philippe - November 8th, 2008 at 17:15

    Thanks Mark,
    It’s time to make business now!
    See you in SF
    Philippe – Mobitween, a Zed group company

  3. #3 by Bill Perry - November 8th, 2008 at 17:29

    thanks for posting. the community will find this information useful.

  4. #4 by vivek - November 8th, 2008 at 17:39

    Thanks a lot Mark :)

    vivek
    i2fly

  5. #5 by Matt Pollitt - November 8th, 2008 at 19:28

    hi mark,

    will there be any events similar to the mobile summit for MAX milan?

    cheers

    Matt

  6. #6 by MarkD - November 8th, 2008 at 22:35

    Hi Matt,

    There won’t be a Mobile Summit in Milan however some partners including Zed will be on site.

    I’ll let you know offline when I find out..

    Mark

  7. #7 by R - November 8th, 2008 at 22:35

    hi Mark, one Q:
    How do you sell Flash for mobile if you cannot protect it?
    -r

  8. #8 by MarkD - November 9th, 2008 at 00:02

    Hi,

    Flash isn’t protected in our Internet browsers, but that seems to work quite well for those developers?

    If someone stops you selling your content because it’s ‘not protected’ then I’d suggest going elsewhere..

    Mark

  9. #9 by andraz - November 9th, 2008 at 09:03

    Our multimedia developers will be in Milan. Any chance of inside talk there or not? It would be very sweet. 10x.

  10. #10 by Pasi Manninen - November 9th, 2008 at 10:01

    Thanks Mark!

  11. #11 by Rick Treweek - November 10th, 2008 at 04:11

    Excellent! Thats really a great help, thanks Mark!

  12. #12 by Kirk Ballou - November 10th, 2008 at 05:18

    That is great! This is usually the first thing clients ask, “how many devices is flash on now?”

  13. #13 by Mark Powel - November 19th, 2008 at 12:28

    RE: That is great! This is usually the first thing clients ask, “how many devices is flash on now?”

    Their question should be “how do people discover & purchase flash content”

  14. #14 by Mobile - April 24th, 2009 at 01:38

    Great post

  15. #15 by nokia - April 24th, 2009 at 01:39

    That is great!

  16. #16 by Disease - May 15th, 2009 at 15:13

    Excellent! Thats really a great help, thanks Mark!

  17. #17 by arda turan - May 19th, 2009 at 15:49

    That is great! This is usually the first thing clients ask, “how many devices is flash on now?”

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