Flash Lite Penetration Forecast for 2008/2009


I’m really happy to bring you a new snapshot of the recent Strategy Analytics Flash Lite Forecast.  Strategy Analytics have worked extremely hard to provide this data and this time I think its more accurate and detailed than ever.

You can see in the above image that they are forecasting over 922 million devices to have shipped with Flash by the end of the year.  In 2009 we will cross the 1 Billion device mark and should ship up to 1.5 Billion by the end of the year.  What this shows is that in fact there will be 1 Billion devices in the install base toward the end of next year!  Incredible..

This time we have been able to work with Strategy Analytics to project the penetration of Flash Lite 3 across the install base.  In the above image you can see the decline of Flash Lite 1.1 devices and Flash Lite 2.x and 3.x increasing.  This is true for all markets including Japan where Flash Lite 1.1 is the dominant version.  We will transistion from 25 million Flash Lite 3.0 devices to over 58 million in a single year.. only in Japan :-)

Strategy Analytics have been kind enough to provide the community with a snapshot of this data.  You can download these PDFs from my sidebar and use them with your customers or in presentations.  As a courtesy you should quote Strategy Analytics whenever you use this data.

At MAX in San Francisco this year I’ll be talking about how you can begin to create and distribute your applications to some of these devices.  If you’re an old hand or completely new to mobile development then be sure to attend these events.  We’ll have representatives from every corner of the ecosystem attending to hear your ideas around engaging mobile applications.

Mobile Summit
(Sunday 16 November at the Marriott from 1-6pm PST)
Join Adobe and our partners — Nokia, Qualcomm, Verizon, Sony Ericsson, GetJar, Thumbplay, and Zed — to learn about new opportunities for mobile developers this year. Get a sneak peak at what you will see and hear at MAX before anyone else does! Hear from Adobe partners and key industry players as they present the newest mobile solutions, technologies, and distribution opportunities for mobile developers.  To learn more and RSVP for this event go to: http://www.eventsadobe.com/mobilesummitmax08/invite.html.

Mobile Fast Pitch Networking Party
(Wednesday 19 November at the Thirsty Bear from 6:15-9:30pm PST)
Adobe is hosting a special Mobile Networking Party to allow developers to showcase their mobile applications using our Adobe Flash mobile technologies. If you already have a web-based application and are thinking of going mobile, you can also present your idea and get feedback from our industry leaders. Join us to support fellow developers or to present your ideas.  For more RSVP and presentation information for this event go to: http://www.eventsadobe.com

  • http://flashmobile.scottjanousek.com/ Scott Janousek

    Congrats.

  • Philippe

    Thanks Mark,
    It’s time to make business now!
    See you in SF
    Philippe – Mobitween, a Zed group company

  • http://www.flashdevices.net Bill Perry

    thanks for posting. the community will find this information useful.

  • http://www.i2fly.com vivek

    Thanks a lot Mark :)

    vivek
    i2fly

  • http://blog.i2fly.com/?p=858 Adobe Flash-lite-penetration-2008-2009 at I2fly

    [...] is great news for all Adobe Flash lite developers via Mark, “I’m really happy to bring you a new snapshot of the recent Strategy Analytics Flash Lite [...]

  • Matt Pollitt

    hi mark,

    will there be any events similar to the mobile summit for MAX milan?

    cheers

    Matt

  • http://www.flashmobileblog.com MarkD

    Hi Matt,

    There won’t be a Mobile Summit in Milan however some partners including Zed will be on site.

    I’ll let you know offline when I find out..

    Mark

  • http://forum.nokia.com R

    hi Mark, one Q:
    How do you sell Flash for mobile if you cannot protect it?
    -r

  • http://www.flashmobileblog.com MarkD

    Hi,

    Flash isn’t protected in our Internet browsers, but that seems to work quite well for those developers?

    If someone stops you selling your content because it’s ‘not protected’ then I’d suggest going elsewhere..

    Mark

  • http://www.3fs.si andraz

    Our multimedia developers will be in Milan. Any chance of inside talk there or not? It would be very sweet. 10x.

  • http://ptm.fi Pasi Manninen

    Thanks Mark!

  • http://ptm.fi/?p=46 Adobe Flash Lite Penetration Forecast for 2008/2009 | PTM

    [...] news for all Adobe Flash lite developers via Mark Doherty, “I’m really happy to bring you a new snapshot of the recent Strategy Analytics Flash Lite [...]

  • http://www.biskero.org/?p=3295 Flash Lite in numbers! | biskero

    [...] posted some information about Flash Lite numbers for shipments and geographic [...]

  • http://flashmobile.scottjanousek.com/2008/11/09/dr-evil-says-over-1-billion-flash-devices-in-2009/ Scott Janousek » Blog Archive » Dr. Evil says over “1 BILLION Flash devices” in 2009

    [...] just kidding … it was Mark Doherty (Adobe MaD) who posted the Flash device penetration recent 2008/2009 stats … but isn’t [...]

  • Rick Treweek

    Excellent! Thats really a great help, thanks Mark!

  • http://ballou.wordpress.com/2008/11/10/flash-lite-soon-to-cross-the-1-billion-device-mark/ Flash Lite soon to cross the 1 Billion device mark! « Mobile Monday DFW

    [...] Analytics courtesy of Mark Doherty (Adobe) with recent numbers on Flash Lite saturation rates: Link to Stats It is impressive Flash has continually doubled in most markets and continues to. This time last [...]

  • http://flashwidgets.blogspot.com Kirk Ballou

    That is great! This is usually the first thing clients ask, “how many devices is flash on now?”

  • http://blog.digitalbackcountry.com/?p=1477 Flash Penetration on Mobile Devices | Ryan Stewart – Rich Internet Application Mountaineer

    [...] Doherty blogged about some great numbers for Flash on mobile devices. There’s going to be a bunch of talk about Flash mobile at MAX and there is an entire Mobile [...]

  • http://www.blocketpc.com/2008/11/10/nuevas-estadisticas-de-penetracion-de-flash-lite/ Nuevas estadísticas de penetración de Flash Lite | BlocketPc :: Flash Lite y Mobile Web

    [...] Aquí os dejo el enlace a la entrada completa en el blog de Mark Doherty. [...]

  • http://technycom.wordpress.com/2008/11/11/flash-penetration-on-mobile-devices/ Flash Penetration on Mobile Devices « Tech Blog

    [...] Penetration on Mobile Devices Mark Doherty blogged about some great numbers for Flash on mobile devices. There’s going to be a bunch of talk about Flash mobile at MAX and there is an entire Mobile [...]

  • http://www.scriptamanentgroup.net/byte/?p=554 .byte-sm’s blog – Leonardo Risuleo » Flash Lite Penetration Forecast for 2008-2009

    [...] Mark recently published a new snapshot of the recent Strategy Analytics Flash Lite Forecast.  “Strategy Analytics have worked extremely hard to provide this data and this time I think its more accurate and detailed than ever.” […] they are forecasting over 922 million devices to have shipped with Flash by the end of the year.  In 2009 we will cross the 1 Billion device mark and should ship up to 1.5 Billion by the end of the year.  What this shows is that in fact there will be 1 Billion devices in the install base toward the end of next year!  Incredible.. [...]

  • http://mobbiq.com/blog/index.php/flash-lite-statistics/82 Flash Lite statistics | mobbiq blog

    [...] flashmobile Permalink|Comments RSS Feed – Post a comment|Trackback [...]

  • Mark Powel

    RE: That is great! This is usually the first thing clients ask, “how many devices is flash on now?”

    Their question should be “how do people discover & purchase flash content”

  • http://flashmobile.scottjanousek.com/2008/12/21/flash-video-on-your-iphone-via-imobilecinema-safari-plug-in/ Scott Janousek » Blog Archive » Flash Video on your iPhone via iMobileCinema Safari Plug-in

    [...] to particular Mobile Internet Device (people don’t know, or seem to too quickly forget that Flash runs across 1 billion devices, worldwide, already!). iMobileCinema is a powerful Safari plugin for playing internet videos on your iPhone or iPod [...]

  • http://www.100loop.com.br/blogs/renato_lima/archive/2009/01/07/flash-lite-x-java-me.aspx Flash Lite X Java ME – Renato Lima

    [...] Flash Lite (Fonte: Strategy Analytics ) Normal 0 21 false false false [...]

  • http://www.menokia.com/vb/ Mobile

    Great post

  • http://www.menokia.com nokia

    That is great!

  • http://www.96169.org/ Disease

    Excellent! Thats really a great help, thanks Mark!

  • http://www.msn-nickler.com arda turan

    That is great! This is usually the first thing clients ask, “how many devices is flash on now?”